Papabile (, , ; pl. papabili; ) is an unofficial Italian term first coined by Vaticanologists and now used internationally in many languages to describe a Catholic man, in practice always a cardinal, who is thought a likely or possible candidate to be elected pope. In some cases the cardinals will choose a papabile candidate. Among the papabili cardinals who have been elected pope are Eugenio Pacelli (Pius XII), Giovanni Battista Montini (Paul VI), and Joseph Ratzinger (Benedict XVI) and Jorge Mario Bergoglio (Francis). However, at times the College of Cardinals elects a man who was not considered papabile by most Vatican watchers. In recent years those who were elected pope though not considered papabile include John XXIII, John Paul I, and John Paul II. The list of papabili changes as cardinals age. For instance, Carlo Maria Martini was thought to be papabile until he retired from his see upon reaching 75 years of age. There is a saying among Vaticanologists: "He who enters the conclave as pope, leaves it as a cardinal." This is a popular proverb in Italy as well, indicating one should never be too sure of oneself.

Terminology

The term papabile is at least as old as the 15th century, since it is found in the Catholicon Anglicum. In Italian, the word papabile is also used in non-Church contexts. This includes usage in reference to short list candidates, i.e. those who, among the available candidates, are most likely to get elected or appointed to a specific position.

Papabili elected pope

Papabili not elected

Being seen as papabile is no guarantee of election, and is sometimes seen as a handicap. (Although the following candidates were widely discussed as candidates publicly, the actual vote results described below are frequently based on rumours and sourced, if at all, from off-the-record reports of individual cardinals.)

Papabili at the 2013 conclave

The following cardinals, as noted in the cited references, were also considered papabili at the 2013 conclave, which elected Jorge Mario Cardinal Bergoglio, who took the name Francis.

Papabili in future conclave - The Next Pope (2020)

Edward Pentin, Rome correspondent for the National Catholic Register, released a book in August 2020 entitled The Next Pope: The Leading Cardinal Candidates, listing 19 Cardinals he considered papabili for a future conclave after Pope Francis. Some of them have turned 80 since the publication of the book and thus will not be part of a future conclave (but could still be elected pope). Several others are due to reach the age of 80 in the next couple of years. The nineteen listed:

Non-papabili elected pope

Prior to 1978, no non-Italian had been elected Pope since the 1522 conclave that chose the short-lived Dutch Pope Adrian VI.

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