George Modelski was Professor of political science in the University of Washington. Modelski was a professor there from 1967 to 1995. Before working at the University of Washington, Modelski was a senior research fellow at the Institute of Advanced Studies at the Australian National University. Modelski did work on long-term processes in global politics and economics, as well as the world urban macrodynamics and world system evolution. He was a neorealist. In 2012 he was awarded with the Bronze Kondratieff Medal by the International N. D. Kondratieff Foundation.

Long cycles theory

George Modelski devised a cyclical theory of world leadership. Each cycle is about 100 years' duration and a new hegemonic power appears each time.

The five world leaders

Portugal 1492-1580; in the Age of Discovery the Netherlands 1580-1688; beginning with the Eighty Years' War, 1579-1588 United Kingdom (1) 1688-1792; beginning with the wars of Louis XIV United Kingdom (2) 1792-1914; beginning with the French Revolution and Napoleonic wars the United States 1914 to (predicted) 2030; beginning with World War I and two.

The four phases of the cycle

1, Global War, which a) involves almost all global powers, b) is 'characteristically naval' c) is caused by a system breakdown, d) is extremely lethal, e) results in a new global leader, capable of tackling global problems. The war is a 'decision process' analogous to a national election. The emerging global power typically enjoys a 'good war' with undamaged domestic infrastructure and a booming economy. The Thirty Years War, though lasting and destructive, was not a 'global war' 2, World Power, which lasts for 'about one generation'. The new incumbent power 'prioritises global problems', mobilises a coalition, is decisive and innovative. For example, the UK after 1815 acted against the transatlantic slave trade and led the Congress system; the US after 1945 co-founded the UN, the IMF, GATT, and the Bretton Woods system. Pre-modern communities become dependent on the hegemonic power 3, Delegitimation. This phase can last for 20–27 years; the hegemonic power falters, as rival powers assert new nationalistic policies. 4, Deconcentration. The hegemony's problem-solving capacity declines. It yields to a multipolar order of warring rivals. Pre-modern communities become less dependent.

The role of the 'challenger'

In the deconcentration phase a rival state or challenger appears. Spain challenged Portugal; Louis XIV and France challenged the Netherlands; Napoleon Bonaparte sought to bring down the UK; Germany under Kaiser Wilhelm II and Hitler brought an end to British hegemony for a second time. Writing in 1987, Modelski forecast that the USSR would challenge American power from 2030, in a new global war.

Why challengers have failed

World leader nations tend to have: 'insular geography' and a strong naval power providing 'global reach'; a stable, open society; a strong economy; strategic organisation, and strong political parties. By contrast, the 'challenger' nations have: closed systems; absolute rulers; domestic instability; continental geographic locations; and weaker naval power.

Origins and evolution

According to Modelski, the cycle originated in about 1493 through a) the decline of Venetian naval power, b) Chinese abandonment of naval exploration, and c) discovery of sea routes to India and the Americas. It has developed in parallel with the growth of the nation-state, political parties, command of the sea, and 'dependency of pre-modern communities'. The system is flawed, lacking in coherence, solidarity, and capacity to address the North-South divide.

Forecasts

Modelski speculates that US deconcentration might be replaced by a power based in the 'Pacific rim' or by an explicit coalition of nations, as 'co-operation is urgently required in respect of nuclear weapons'.

Critical response

Modelski 'dismisses the idea that international relations are anarchic'. His research, influenced by Immanuel Wallerstein, was 'measured in decades... a major achievement' says Peter J. Taylor Colin Flint saw several flaws in the argument. It is deterministic, incapable of prediction; 'Portugal's 16th century history does not determine the US's 21st century future.' Modelski took a state-centric view which focused on rich countries and ignored the Global South. Flint also questions whether naval power is still relevant in a time of cruise missiles, satellites and drones. Joshua S Goldstein says however that long cycles are not mechanistic or deterministic, but 'evolutionary and dynamic' and therefore do have predictive power.

Books