Gambling for resurrection is a situation in international relations when a leader weakened domestically is willing to risk war or prolong war to maintain office.

Theory

The term "gambling for resurrection" was first formalized in academic discourse by George W. Downs and David M. Rocke in their book "Optimal Imperfection? Domestic Uncertainty and Institutions in International Relations" published in 1995. The phrase refers to the risky actions taken by political leaders, particularly when they face domestic challenges or imminent removal from power. These leaders might adopt extreme strategies, such as starting a diversionary war, in the hope that a dramatic success will turn the tide in their favor, thus "resurrecting" their political fortunes. Gambling for resurrection could also mean prolonging an existing war that should rationally be ended, and might normally have resulted in removal from office or punishment (imprisonment, exile, or death). The leader thus continues the war against the country's interest, adopting risky military strategies in the hope of a dramatic reversal of fortune in the war's outcome. In this situation, escalation is more attractive than peace because the losses are below the leader's removal threshold. Once it appears that the leader will in any case be removed from office, there is no other sanction that can be applied to the leader — who thus has nothing to risk from further escalation, but may win the right to stay in office should the gamble be successful.

Examples

It is seldom possible to provide conclusive proof that a leader's decision to go to war or prolong war is motivated by personal or domestic political issues. However, some conflicts may be seen as gambles for resurrection, including:

Pop culture influence

Gambling for resurrection is often referred to in the mainstream media as "Wag the dog," a reference to a 1997 film by the same name in which a fictional President of the United States starts a fake diversionary war to distract the American public from a sex scandal.