The 2010 United States Senate election in Arkansas took place on November 2, 2010, alongside other elections to the United States Senate in other states, as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic Senator Blanche Lincoln ran for re-election to a third term, facing a strong primary challenge from Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter and prevailing only in a runoff. However, the general election was won by U.S. Representative John Boozman, the younger brother of Fay Boozman, whom Lincoln defeated in 1998. Boozman became the first Republican since Reconstruction in 1872 to win this seat. Lincoln's 21% margin of defeat was the largest for a sitting senator since the 1978 United States Senate election in Maine.

Democratic primary

The Democratic primary was held on May 18, 2010, with early voting from May 3 to 17. Lincoln was challenged by Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter, who ran as a more liberal alternative. As no candidate received 50 percent of the vote, a runoff election was held on June 8, with early voting from June 1 to 7. Lincoln managed to narrowly defeat Halter in the runoff. MoveOn.org supported Halter, criticizing Lincoln for her stance on issues such as health care and environmental regulations. Labor unions also backed Halter, and pledged to spend more than $3 million on his campaign.

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in runoff

Eliminated in primary

Withdrew Before Primary

Polling

Results

[[File:Arkansas Senate Democratic primary, 2010.svg|200px|thumb|Results by county: Lincoln {{legend|#4389e3|Lincoln—60-70%}} {{legend|#86b6f2|Lincoln—50-60%}} {{legend|#b9d7ff|Lincoln—40-50%}} Halter {{legend|#ffb380|Halter—40-50%}} {{legend|#ff9955|Halter—50-60%}} {{legend|#ff7f2a|Halter—60-70%}} ]]

Runoff

Polling

Results

[[File:Arkansas Senate Democratic primary runoff, 2010.svg|thumb|200px|Runoff results by county: Lincoln {{legend|#1666cb|Lincoln—70-80%}} {{legend|#4389e3|Lincoln—60-70%}} {{legend|#86b6f2|Lincoln—50-60%}} Halter {{legend|#ff9955|Halter—50-60%}} {{legend|#ff7f2a|Halter—60-70%}} {{legend|#ff6600|Halter—70-80%}} ]]

Republican primary

The Republican primary was held on May 18, 2010, with early voting from May 3–17.

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Straw poll

In December 2009, a straw poll was held for the current Republican candidates for U.S. Senate. The results were as follows:

Polling

Results

[[File:Arkansas Senate Republican primary, 2010.svg|thumb|200px|Results by county: Boozman {{legend|#aa0000|Boozman—80-90%}} {{legend|#d40000|Boozman—70-80%}} {{legend|#cc2f4a|Boozman—60-70%}} {{legend|#e27f90|Boozman—50-60%}} {{legend|#f2b3be|Boozman—40-50%}} {{legend|#ffccd0|Boozman—30-40%}} Holt {{legend|#ffccaa|Holt—30-40%}} {{legend|#ffb380|Holt—40-50%}} Boozman/Holt tie {{legend|#d2b1d9|Boozman/Holt tie—20-30%}} Baker {{legend|#afe9af|Baker—30-40%}} {{legend|#5fd35f|Baker—50-60%}} ]]

General election

Candidates

Campaign

Arkansas had previously only elected one Republican senator since the Reconstruction, Tim Hutchinson who was defeated after his first term in 2002 by Mark Pryor. Lincoln faced Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter and narrowly won the primary contest. The political blog FiveThirtyEight ranked Lincoln the most vulnerable senator of this electoral cycle. RealClearPolitics claimed that in 2010 Lincoln had the potential for the lowest percentage of the vote for any incumbent since the nation first began directly electing senators. Boozman received 58% of the vote in the general election and defeated Lincoln (37%), Independent Trevor Drown (3%) and Green John Gray (2%). Lincoln heavily criticized Boozman for supporting the FairTax and privatization of Social Security, as well as trying to tie her name, and beliefs to Bill Clinton She released an advertisement touting her support for earmarks.

Debates

Predictions

Fundraising

Polling

with Bill Halter

Results

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican