The 2006 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election was held on November 7, 2006, and included the races for the governor of Pennsylvania and lieutenant governor of Pennsylvania. Incumbent Democratic governor Ed Rendell successfully ran for re-election. Pennsylvania's first female lieutenant governor, Catherine Baker Knoll, was also running for re-election. As of 2023, this is the most recent gubernatorial election in which the Democratic candidate has carried the following counties- Clearfield, Columbia, Elk, Mercer, Pike, Susquehanna, Warren, Washington, Wayne and Wyoming. This is the last time any statewide race in Pennsylvania resulted in a candidate getting over 60% of the vote.

Background

Rendell and Knoll had the advantage of incumbency, important in the swing state of Pennsylvania. Rendell's approval rating as of May 2006 was 62%. In the 2000 Presidential election, then Vice President Al Gore won the state 50.6%-46.4% over then Texas Governor George W. Bush. In 2004, Senator John Kerry carried the state 50.9%-48.4% over incumbent president Bush. Although the state had voted Democratic in eight of the past 12 presidential elections, its Congressional delegation had been majority Republican for years. The counties of Philadelphia and Allegheny were the Democratic strongholds, while the central part of the state was where the Republican Party fared best. The 2005 statewide party registration had Democrats out-numbering Republicans in the state with 3,841,429 to 3,292,656, with 939,252 registered independent voters.

Democratic primary

Michael Morrill, the Green Party's nominee for governor in 2002, considered challenging Rendell on a progressive liberal platform. On February 13, 2006, Morrill however stated that he would not run, citing the toll his 2002 race took on his family. Rendell thus ran unopposed.

Results

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

Declined

Campaign

Lynn Swann, Jeff Piccola, Jim Panyard and Bill Scranton III all announced their intention to run in the Republican primary for governor in 2006. Scranton, who served two terms as Lieutenant Governor of Pennsylvania, was the son of popular former governor William Scranton, and a member of the wealthy Scranton family was the early front-runner. However, a series of blunders by his campaign, and a lack of momentum from the Piccola and Panyard campaigns moved Swann into presumptive nominee status. The state Republican party then endorsed Swann, leading the three other candidates to drop out ahead of the March deadline to file for the primary.

Results

General election

Candidates

Withdrew

Failed to submit signatures

Four candidates were campaigning for governor, but only two went on to appear on the ballot in November. Constitution candidate Hagan Smith and Independent candidate Russ Diamond were unable to secure the necessary signatures to appear on the ballot. On August 11, Green Party candidate Marakay Rogers withdrew her nominating papers, following a challenge by Pennsylvania Democrats, who alleged more than 69,000 signatures on the petitions were fake names, unregistered voters or illegible. The challenge followed a Republican drive to collect signatures to put Green candidate Carl Romanelli on the ballot in the Senate race. Rogers continued to campaign, hopeful that a federal appeals court would rule favorably in a lawsuit seeking to overturn the state's signature requirement for third-party candidates.

Analysis

In July 2005, a Zogby Poll showed Rendell with only a 47% to 41% lead over Lynn Swann. Some speculated that controversy over Act 72, proposed Medicaid cuts, and possibly even a legislative pay increase that was signed into law had reduced the Governor's popularity. Rendell led in other recent polls by significantly higher margins. Following that poll, Rendell's supporters pointed out that he has raised more money than his opponents, which they felt would help him spread his message. They also pointed out that as a sitting governor, Rendell had all of the traditional advantages of an incumbent. Swann hoped to perform strongly in the conservative "T" section of the state (the central and northern regions) and in his native western Pennsylvania area. Swann canvassed for votes among tailgating voters in Philadelphia before the Steelers game against the Eagles. On February 7, Swann served as master of ceremonies for the Pittsburgh Steelers's Super Bowl XL victory parade before 250,000 people. Polls in early February showed Swann and Rendell in a statistical tie. However, Swann's momentum did not survive an effective barrage of advertising from Rendell in early spring and had trouble keeping up with Rendell's effective fundraising. Swann's focus on reform never caught traction, possibly as a result of his vocal support for Chip Brightbill and Robert Jubelirer, two legislative leaders who were defeated in the May 2006 primary election.

Predictions

Polling

Results

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Sources